Is escalation the only signal?

Corporate Earnings News

Posted on Tuesday, 10^th March

Oracle quarterly revenue +21.7% to $17.190 bn vs $17.191 bn estimate

EPS at $1.79 vs $1.70 expected

The company’s press statement stated, “This Q3 was the first quarter in over 15 years where organic total revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share both grew at 20% or more in USD. Cloud revenue was at the high end of our guidance, total revenue was at the high end of constant currency guidance and above USD guidance, and non-GAAP earnings per share were above our guidance in both USD and constant currency."— see report.

Key data to move markets today

EU: German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices and speeches by 

Banque of France Governor François de Villeroy de Galhau, Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, and ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel 

UK: BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings

US: CPI and a speech by Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman

Global Macro Updates

Diplomatic solutions elusive as Iran conflict intensifies. On Tuesday afternoon, stock markets fell after reports emerged that Iran had begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. According to CNN sources, the mining activity has not yet been extensive, with only a few dozen mines placed in recent days. Nevertheless, Iran reportedly retains up to 90% of its small boat and mine layer fleet, raising the possibility that it could deploy hundreds of mines in the waterway. In response to these developments, the US President stated on Truth Social that if the mines are not removed, military consequences would follow at an unprecedented level. The US has claimed to have destroyed 16 minelayers near the Strait of Hormuz.

The US Navy has not escorted any vessels through the Strait of Hormuz after President Trump suggested this as an option, contrary to Energy Secretary Wright's earlier claim that a Navy warship had accompanied an oil tanker through the strait.

Tuesday also witnessed the most intense barrage of airstrikes on Iran since the onset of the conflict, despite President Trump indicating on Monday his intention to resolve the hostilities soon. Defence Secretary Hegseth had previously forecast that Tuesday would see the heaviest day of strikes within Iran.

Oil prices rebounded sharply from earlier lows following news of the mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, officials from the International Energy Agency (IEA) are scheduled to meet Wednesday to discuss a potential release of emergency stockpiles to mitigate supply disruptions. This follows comments from US officials on Monday suggesting that a joint release of 300 to 400 million barrels, or 25% to 30% of reserves, would be appropriate.

The market continues to search for a diplomatic solution, though recent developments have made this pursuit more challenging. Axios reported that the Trump administration has requested Israel refrain from conducting further strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, particularly oil facilities.

US Stock Indices

Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.07%
Nasdaq 100 -0.04%
S&P 500 -0.21%, with 9 of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 down

Equities experienced notable volatility throughout Tuesday’s trading session. Major indices fluctuated between modest gains and losses, with the S&P 500 maintaining positive territory for much of Tuesday, supported in part by select companies integral to the ongoing expansion of artificial intelligence. Data-storage firms SanDisk and Micron, along with the fiber-optics company Corning, each advanced more than three percent during the session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by as much as one percent in the afternoon, yet ultimately closed down -0.07%, marking its largest intraday reversal since November. The S&P 500 declined -0.21%, while the Nasdaq Composite registered a marginal gain of +0.01%. Small-cap equities also displayed considerable turbulence; the Russell 2000 Index rose one and a half percent at its peak, but ended the day down -0.22%.

In corporate news, Boeing announced that a recently discovered wiring flaw on its 737 Max aircraft will result in delayed deliveries of its highly profitable narrowbody jet.

Alphabet’s Google is set to deploy artificial intelligence agents across the Pentagon’s workforce, which numbers approximately three million employees, to automate routine tasks, according to a senior defencse official, as reported by Bloomberg news.

Nvidia revealed a new investment in Thinking Machines Lab, a firm established by former OpenAI executive Mira Murati.

Amazon has issued $37 billion in US dollar-denominated bonds, with the potential to increase to nearly $50 billion pending an anticipated euro-denominated debt offering.

Salesforce is reportedly preparing to issue up to $25 billion in debt to finance a share repurchase programme, according to individuals familiar with the matter.

Honeywell Aerospace has initiated its inaugural US investment-grade bond sale totaling $16 billion, in anticipation of a planned business spinoff.

S&P 500 Best performing sector

Communication Services +0.26%, with Meta Platforms +1.03%, AT&T +0.65%, and T-Mobile US +0.59%

S&P 500 Worst performing sector

Financials -1.32%, with CBOE Global Markets -4.57%, Erie Indemnity -4.56%, and Factset Research Systems -4.09%

Mega Caps

Alphabet +0.30%, Amazon +0.17%, Apple +0.37%, Meta Platforms +1.03%, Microsoft -0.89%, Nvidia +1.16%, and Tesla +0.14%

Information Technology

Best performer: Enphase Energy +6.68%
Worst performer: Fair Isaac -10.83%

Materials and Mining

Best performer: Freeport McMoRan +3.16%
Worst performer: FMC -2.69%

European Stock Indices

CAC 40 +1.79%
DAX +2.39%
FTSE 100 +1.59%

Commodities

Gold spot +1.06% to $5,191.31 an ounce
Silver spot +1.60% to $88.40 an ounce
West Texas Intermediate +0.50% to $88.31 a barrel
Brent crude +1.79% to $91.40 a barrel

Gold experienced an increase of over one percent on Tuesday, supported by diminishing inflationary pressures as oil prices retreated. Spot gold advanced +1.06% to $5,191.31 per ounce. Markets are now awaiting February’s US CPI data, due later today, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, on Friday, for further indications of the Fed’s rate policy path and timeline.

Spot silver rose +1.60% to $88.40 per ounce in response to both safe-haven demand and industrial supply stress.

Oil prices fluctuated on Tuesday following a report from The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) indicating that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed the largest release of oil reserves in its history to counteract supply disruptions resulting from the ongoing war in Iran.

Brent crude futures rose $1.61, or +1.79%, to reach $91.40 per barrel. WTI increased by 44 cents, or +0.50%, to $88.31 per barrel.

However, both contracts declined immediately after the release of the WSJ report, reversing their earlier gains.

According to the WSJ, citing officials familiar with the matter, the IEA's proposed drawdown would surpass the 182 million barrels collectively released by IEA member countries in 2022 during Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron is scheduled to host a video conference with other G7 leaders on Wednesday to discuss the ramifications of the Middle East conflict on global energy markets and potential measures to address the situation.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has shut down its Ruwais refinery following a fire caused by a drone strike on one of its facilities, marking the latest disruption to energy infrastructure resulting from the US-Israel-led conflict with Iran.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, is reportedly increasing supplies via the Red Sea. Nevertheless, shipping data indicates these volumes remain insufficient to compensate for reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

The kingdom is leveraging the Red Sea port of Yanbu to boost exports and avoid significant production cuts, as neighboring countries such as Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates have already curtailed output amid the ongoing conflict.

According to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, the war is currently reducing Gulf oil and oil product supplies to the market by approximately 15 million barrels per day.

Note: As of 4 pm EST 10 March 2026

Currencies

EUR -0.26% to $1.1605
GBP -0.21% to $1.3408
Bitcoin +1.17% to $69,783.25
Ethereum +0.03% to $2,030.04

The US dollar remained resilient on Wednesday, as uncertainty stemming from conflicting reports regarding a potential resolution to the US-Israel–Iran conflict continued to weigh on market sentiment.

The euro fell -0.26% to $1.1605 after having reached a three-month low on Monday. The British pound also weakened, falling -0.21% to $1.3408.

The dollar index stood at 98.93, up +0.21%, marking its highest level in three months. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar advanced by +0.27% to ¥158.08.

Investor focus turns to the release of US inflation data for February today, which is expected to indicate a 0.2% increase in core consumer prices and a 0.3% rise in headline inflation for the month. 

Fixed Income

US 10-year Bond +6.4 basis points to 4.164%
German 10-year -2.2 basis points to 2.840%
UK 10-year gilt -8.8 basis points to 4.498%

On Tuesday, US Treasury yields increased across the yield curve, reflecting heightened activity in the bond market.

Earlier in the session, yields declined following remarks by the US President suggesting that the US-Israel-led conflict with Iran may soon be resolved.

Adding to the uncertainty, the White House clarified that the US military had not escorted any commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, shortly after Energy Secretary Chris Wright deleted a social media post claiming that the US Navy had accompanied an oil tanker through the critical waterway.

Throughout the past week, yields have exhibited considerable volatility, rising amid concerns that elevated oil prices could drive inflation higher and potentially cause the Fed to postpone rate cuts.

The yield on US 10-year Treasury notes was +6.4 bps on the day, reaching 4.164%. The two-year note yield increased +6.1 bps to 3.611%.

The yield curve between two- and 10-year notes steepened by +0.3 bps to 55.3 bps.

The expected release on Friday of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for January is anticipated to show a 0.3% increase in headline inflation for the month, as well as a 0.4% rise in core prices.

The Treasury encountered modest demand for its $58 billion sale of three-year notes on Tuesday, marking the first auction in this week's $119 billion offering of coupon-bearing securities.

The three-year notes were sold at a high yield of 3.579%, exceeding pre-auction trading levels by just over 1.0 bps. The bid-to-cover ratio stood at 2.55x, its lowest since August.

Later in the week, the Treasury will offer $39 billion in 10-year notes today and $22 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.

According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 39.2 bps of cuts in 2026, lower than the 47.4 bps priced in the previous week. Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 0.6% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the 18^th March FOMC meeting, down from 3.6% a week ago.

On Tuesday, Germany's two-year government bond yields, sensitive to policy expectations, declined after reaching a 19-month high the previous day. The two-year yield fell by -6.7 bps to 2.260%, having touched 2.476% on Monday, its highest level since August 2024.

Money markets reflected an approximately 60% probability of an ECB quarter point rate increase by July, with markets fully pricing in such a move by the end of the year.

Despite these expectations, economists remain cautious regarding the prospect of ECB tightening, noting that the central bank has historically looked past inflation surges driven by oil prices, especially when elevated energy costs have coincided with weakening economic conditions. 

Germany's 10-year government bond yield was -2.2 bps lower at 2.840% after reaching 2.931%, its highest level since mid-March of the previous year. At the long end of the curve, the 30-year yield rose +1.5 bps to 3.445%.

In Italy, 10-year government bond yields fell by -9.7 bps to 3.533%. The spread over comparable German Bunds narrowed to 69.3 bps on Tuesday, 7.5 bps tighter than on Monday. .

Note: As of 4 pm EST 10 March 2026

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