Earnings Scoreboard - Will it be Nvidia’s world?

 

Renée Friedman, Global Head of Research

Horacio Coutino, Multi-asset Strategist

“It’s often remarked that a lack of discipline is a surefire sign of a poor investor, but in my opinion — and personal experience! — a lack of imagination can be just as much of a shortcoming. Having the open-mindedness and creativity to envision what could happen while developing and stress-testing your assumptions can often be a very helpful way to identify opportunities in financial markets.”

— Luke Kawa, Software stocks crater as independent research piece details potential AI dystopian scenario, from Sherwood News, published on 23rd February, 2026.

Who’s scoring highest and why

From 16th to 20th February, 58 S&P 500 companies (including 1 Dow Jones Industrial Average constituent, Walmart) reported earnings. This earnings season has been characterised by a market that rewards organic, sustainable growth with improving forward visibility. It punishes beats that rely on one-time factors, vague guidance, or external tailwinds. The week saw the market increasingly favour cyclicals, industrials, and value, with rotation away from growth accelerating. Investors are now more selective about rewarding earnings beats — a shift long underway. The S&P 500 Software & Services index has dropped 23.9% year to date, largely due to Anthropic's Claude agents handling tasks like CRM, analytics, and legal research, which were once dominated by SaaS platforms. The fundamental question is whether this is cyclical in terms of multiples compressing, or structural, with business models being destroyed.

As of 20th February, 72.6% of the 423 S&P 500 companies that have reported beat earnings expectations, while 71.8% surpassed revenue forecasts, signifying a strong beginning to this earnings season. According to LSEG I/B/E/S data, the blended Q4 earnings growth rate stands at 13.9%, higher than last week’s 13.2%, higher than 13.0% two weeks ago, and higher than the 8.3% projected at the end of Q4 on 31st December. This earnings season appears set to deliver the tenth consecutive quarter of positive earnings growth for the index, as well as the fifth straight quarter of double-digit y/o/y earnings expansion. The S&P 500 last saw four straight quarters of double-digit earnings growth throughout 2021.

The S&P 500 surprise factor is currently at 5.1%. This is below the average of 7.6% seen over the past four quarters and the five-year average of 7.7%.

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