From the Abraham Accords to AI to FTAs: how to trade the new Middle East

Renée Friedman, PhD, Global Head of Research

The global economic and geopolitical landscape is shifting under the combined weight of uneven monetary policy normalisation, ongoing tariffs and tariff effects, an unprecedented adoption of new technologies, and a new phase of strategic realignment in the Middle East.

For investors and policymakers across the GCC, the task is to understand how these forces interact. Those who map the connections early will be best positioned to capture new avenues for trade, diversify exposure, and manage the next cycle of regional and global risk.

Monetary Policy: Divergence and Challenges

Sticky inflation, tariff risks and rising debt loads limit how far and how fast central banks can cut

Across major economies, and with the notable exception of Japan, global monetary policies largely continued to loosen throughout 2025. The Federal Reserve held rates steady for much of the year, resuming cuts only in September and October in 25 bps increments. The European Central Bank and other G7 central banks have taken similarly cautious paths, easing in response to cooling inflation and softening growth. This overarching challenge is familiar. A delicate balancing act between supporting labour markets while still anchoring inflation expectations.

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